The first is scenario analysis, where you lay out a broad range of scenarios, and estimate a value under each one. If the scenarios represent the complete spectrum of outcomes, you could even derive an expected value. The second is decision trees, suited for projects or businesses that have to deal with sequential risk, where you have to make it through one step to get to the next. The third and most comprehensive approach is simulations, where you replace point estimates of one or more input variables with probability distributions, and estimate a value distribution for an asset/business, rather than a single value. We look at the why you may pick one approach over the other and pitfalls to avoid along the way.
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