This report highlights five major risks that could affect our industry forecasts for the year ahead:
- The US-China trade war: we have cut our 2019 growth forecasts for the automotive and consumer-goods sectors in particular compared with six months ago.
- A global slowdown: even those countries not directly affected by growing trade barriers could be vulnerable to a change in business confidence in 2019, with the most likely impact being on emerging markets.
- Brexit: the UK's exit from the EU in March 2019 will be a drag on sectors including financial services, automotive and healthcare, regardless of any deal that is struck.
- Sanctions on Iran: the US's decision to backtrack from the international Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action could push up global oil prices in 2019.
- Cybersecurity and technology risks: a tussle for technological dominance is at the core of the US-China trade dispute, while regulators are also struggling to ensure safe connectivity.